BOOK REVIEWS

Sheng Lijun, China’s Dilemma: The Taiwan Issue

The main claim of this study by a researcher at the Singapore Institute of Southeast Asian Studies is that it provides a comprehensive summary of Chinaís policy towards Taiwan. Although it places the main emphasis on the second half of the 1990s, it does not neglect the historical connections, and it gives consideration to the viewpoints of the respective protagonistsóPeking, Taipei and Washingtonóas well as to the domestic constraints each of them is under. Despite this, however, the author does set out to defend a particular thesis, namely that it was only after Lee Teng-huiís speech in June 1995 at Cornell University that a true consensus, uniting all the different factions, was formed at the very heart of Chinaís governing elite (pp. 3 and 158). This consensus called for a hardening of Pekingís Taiwan policy, which in turn meant that China was faced with a dilemma, since any military action against Taiwan risked undermining the modernisation process, which was still considered a national priority. It is difficult to assess how solid the grounds for this argument are, since it is itself full of unsupported assertions. With regard to Taiwanís political regime, it seems dubious to insist in the late 1990s that Taiwan may well enjoy a greater freedom of the press and expression of political opinion, but in itself that does not amount to being a liberal democracy (p. 4). In a similar vein, the writer has no qualms writing that Taipeiís policy on chemical and nuclear weapons provides justifiable grounds for military action by China, even adding that this same policy would justify any demand for military inspection which China might make under the terms of various international conventions and other bilateral Sino-American agreements (p. 125). Conversely, the author displays a disconcerting astonishment over the deterioration of Sino-American relations at the end of the Cold War, without even mentioning in this respect the massacre at Tiananmen Square: The end of the Cold War saw China punished rather than rewarded for her role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. She was the victim of economic sanctions, the target of diplomatic isolation, and the object of fierce political attacks from the United States. She had not experienced such treatment since the early 1970s (p. 40). Furthermore, can one really deny the political element by asserting, as Sheng Lijun does, that the one country, two systems formula is ideology-free, on the grounds that neither side should be allowed to impose its political and social system on the other? This book can be seen as participating, however involuntarily, in mainland propaganda, even though it presents the external appearances of a methodical, if not truly scientific, approach. To this should be added the fact that, while the author cites many interviews conducted in both the PRC (in Peking, Shanghai and Xiamen) and Taiwan, the book relies essentially on secondary material taken mainly from Reuters, The Peopleís Daily, The Straits Times and The South China Morning Post. On more than one occasion the source is not identified, whether in the case of secret American plans drawn up during World War Two to achieve neutrality or independence for Taiwan (p. 10) or reports on the capabilities of the PLA (p. 110). The book abounds in similar examples.

Translated from the French original by Jonathan Hall