Steering the Belt and Road’s Energy Mix: A Steering Theory Perspective on Chinese Energy Investments in Pakistan and Indonesia

ABSTRACT: This article contributes to discussions on why Chinese investments in Pakistan cover a wide variety of energy sectors, whereas capital allocation in Indonesia is concentrated in a narrow set of actors and energy sources (coal). While others have highlighted micro-, macro-, and meso-level dimensions, this research looks at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s (MOFCOM) communication as a further factor to steer Chinese project financing. By exposing a set of 281 MOFCOM statements to quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, my findings reveal that MOFCOM publications offer more incentives for private participation in Pakistan than in Indonesia, as represented by the greater number of actors and projects listed, as well as the types of public policy instruments deployed. Besides theoretical contributions to steering theory, the study offers practical suggestions on how China can diversify investments to create more sustainable energy outcomes along the Belt and Road. KEYWORDS: Belt and Road Initiative, energy investment, steering theory, public policy, discourse analysis, energy transition, sustainable development.